Tuesday, May 25,
2010 1:53 PM ET
Regional renewable
outlook: Western Electric Coordinating Council

By
Jesse
Gilbert

The section of the Western Electric Coordinating
Council falling outside California has an abundance of natural resources.
With states within the region setting aggressive renewable portfolio
standard goals, and the possibility of a national standard still on the
table, key players are lining up to develop new renewable energy sources.
In a previous
report, SNL Energy provided a detailed summary of renewable
activity within California. This report focuses on the renewable outlook
within those portions of the WECC outside California.

The way it is
now

The non-California portion of the WECC has 49,735 MW of
installed renewable capacity, making up nearly 39% of total capacity. No
other North American Electric Reliability Corp. region in the United
States has such a high percentage of installed capacity made up of
renewables. A closer look reveals that most of that capacity consists of
hydroelectric generating sources.

The treatment of existing hydroelectric capacity in
state renewable portfolio standards differs from state to state. If
hydroelectric capacity is excluded, the WECC has about 8,757 MW of other
installed renewable capacity, making up about 10% of total nonhydro
capacity. Since many of the sites for large hydroelectric facilities are
already fully utilized in the region, those numbers underscore the need
for diversification in the region's renewable
strategy.

Overall, the installed renewable capacity in the region
is made up of 40,977 MW of hydroelectric, 7,344 MW of wind, 165 MW of
solar, 416 MW of geothermal, 646 MW of biomass wood and 187 MW of biomass
waste.

The region reported 162.3 million MWh of generation
from renewable sources in 2008, representing 29.55% of generation for the
year. Excluding hydroelectric generation, other renewable sources
generated 17.7 million MWh in 2008, which represented a little more than
4% of total nonhydro generation.

To see a current renewable summary for other NERC
regions, subregions and states, click
here.

The
plan

A quick visit to the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory website will immediately give you a sense of the vast resources
present in the WECC. The resource maps on the NREL site highlight the
availability of all renewable energy sources in the region. Many companies
are using those resources to develop clean renewable power.

In total, 73,260 MW of renewable capacity is being
developed in the portion of the WECC outside of California, representing
71% of total planned capacity in the region. Throughout the rest of the
United States, five NERC regions have lower proportions of planned
capacity in renewables and four regions are projecting a higher planned
renewable ratio than the WECC.

The WECC has more solar resources available than any
other region in the United States, with many areas seeing solar potential
of greater than 6 kWh per meter squared per day, and most of the region
with the potential for at least 5 kWh per meter squared per day from solar
resources. The region boasts 10,276 MW of planned solar capacity, which is
a significant addition to the current 165 MW of installed capacity. Solar
accounts for about 14% of planned renewable capacity and about 10% of
total planned capacity, including all fuel types. About 68% of the solar
capacity comes from solar thermal projects, while the remaining 32%
consists of photovoltaic solar projects.

The WECC also has a large potential for wind energy,
particularly in Wyoming, Montana and the parts of South Dakota located
within the region. Currently, 40,111 MW of wind capacity is planned in the
region, representing nearly 39% of planned renewable capacity. Wind makes
up the largest portion of renewable projects, with about double the
planned capacity of hydroelectric projects. The projects are fairly well
distributed among the WECC states, with Wyoming seeing the most planned
wind capacity at 10,122 MW.

Biomass waste and biomass wood technologies represent
the smallest percentage of planned renewable capacity, at 0.17% and 0.26%,
respectively. Resource maps of the region reveal that there is
considerable potential for use of biomass fuel sources in the region.
Oregon, Washington and northern Idaho are identified as having
particularly abundant biomass resources.

The WECC possesses almost all of the highly favorable
geothermal resources in the country, with potential sites located in
almost all states in the region. The current installed capacity of 416 MW
is expected to expand substantially in the coming years as the region has
3,365 MW currently planned, the majority of which is in Nevada.

The
obstacles

While the existence of abundant resources in the WECC
is clear, it is less clear how those resources will translate into
reliable power in places where the power is actually needed. The region is
one of the least densely populated areas of the country, and the distance
from resource sites to population centers can be substantial.

Transmission constraints are the single biggest factor
standing in the way of renewable energy development in the region. Several
groups are examining the problem to come up with creative solutions to
develop transmission in areas where it is needed most.

In May 2008, the Western
Renewable Energy Zones project was initiated by the U.S.
Department of Energy and the Western Governors' Association. The goal of
the WREZ project is to identify the areas of the West possessing vast
renewable resources to aid in the development and delivery of renewable
energy to population centers where it is needed. As part of the plan, the
project will produce conceptual transmission plans for delivering
renewable energy.

In response to transmission challenges posed by
renewable resources and the problems that arise from their intermittent
nature, some creative private solutions also are being posed. Grasslands
Renewable Energy LLC was founded in 2008 to focus on providing
an integrated renewable energy solution.

Grasslands' Wind
Spirit Project was created to develop an integrated
transmission, energy storage and marketing solution for large-scale
renewable energy in the West. The project entails building a transmission
collector system along with energy storage to aggregate up to 3,000 MW of
wind and other renewable power that it will then deliver as 1,000 MW of
firm power. A map of the proposed system is shown below.

The
states

There are 12 states in the WECC, excluding California,
that have planned renewable capacity. Among those states, eight have a
renewable portfolio standard in place, while four states have no
standards. Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska have no RPS standard in place, and
the RPS in Utah functions more as a goal than a mandate.

There are some significant variations among the
standards in place for WECC states. Colorado has one of the most stringent
standards. On March 22, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter signed
into law H.B. 1001, increasing the already aggressive standard of 20% by
2020 to 30% by 2020. Colorado has 3,965 MW of planned renewable capacity,
made up of nearly 3,000 MW of wind, 441 MW of hydroelectric, 602 MW of
solar and 10 MW of geothermal
capacity.

Oregon also has an aggressive RPS, mandating that large
utilities generate 25% of the power they provide to customers from
renewable sources. Nearby Washington has a less stringent standard of 15%
by 2020, and even that faced significant opposition from some groups.

Arizona has a standard in place requiring utilities to
increase the amount of renewables in their generation portfolio to 15% by
2025. The Arizona RPS is unique in that it requires that 30% of renewables
come from distributed energy technologies by 2010. The state has
relatively little renewable resources with the exception of the sun, of
which it has an abundance, and solar technologies are prime candidates for
distributed energy use.

A bill passed in 2005 requires utilities in Montana to
reach a target of 15% of generation from renewable sources by 2015. There
has been an effort to strengthen the standard to 25% by 2025, though the
proposal has faced stiff opposition.

The RPS in place in Utah functions more as a goal than
a mandate. Utilities in the state are required to meet 20% of their retail
electricity sales starting in 2025 from renewable energy generation,
demand-side management and facilities equipped for carbon capture and
sequestration where it is cost-effective to do so. That goal also is
unique in that does not include incremental targets.

Washington has the largest amount of planned renewable
capacity in the WECC, with 11,465 MW, made up mostly of 7,077 MW of
hydroelectric capacity and 3,947 MW of wind capacity. The state generated
nearly 75% of its power from renewable sources in 2008, though that number
falls to just 15.7% if hydroelectric generation is excluded.

Wyoming has the second-largest amount of planned
renewable capacity in the region at 10,844 MW. Of that capacity, 93% comes
from wind projects, with the remaining 7% coming from hydroelectric
technologies. Overall, renewables make up 91% of planned capacity in the
state. The current development environment in the state supports a strong
move away from coal. Only 3.9% of generation in 2008 came from renewable
sources.

Nevada has the most diverse renewable portfolio
strategy, with 2,267 MW of wind, 470 MW of hydroelectric, 2,930 MW of
solar capacity, 2,300 MW of geothermal and 14 MW of biomass waste capacity
planned.

The
players

MidAmerican
Energy Co. has the largest amount of installed renewable
capacity in the region, with 2,059 MW. Through its utility subsidiary
PacifiCorp,
MidAmerican Energy owns 1,083 MW of hydroelectric, 921 MW of wind, 33 MW
of geothermal and 22 MW of biomass wood capacity.

PacifiCorp has 335 MW of planned renewable capacity in
the region, consisting of 300 MW of planned wind and 35 MW of planned
geothermal capacity. In 2009, PacifiCorp issued a request for proposals in
response to its 2008 integrated resource plan calling for 1,400 MW of
cost-effective renewable resources by 2010, with an additional 600 MW in
place by 2013.

Washington-based Chelan
County PUD No. 1 has the second-highest amount of installed
renewable capacity in the region, consisting of three hydroelectric
plants. The public utility
district also is investing $45 million on the replacement of units 1 and 2
at its Chelan
Falls
plant.

IDACORP
Inc. has 1,698 MW of installed renewable capacity in the
region, consisting entirely of hydroelectric technologies. Of the
company's installed capacity, 54% comes from renewable sources. IDACORP
subsidiary Idaho
Power Co. issued an RFP in January 2008 for 50 MW to 100 MW of
geothermal power, with an optimal online date of June
2011.

Four of
the top five companies with planned renewable capacity in the region are
new players to the region with no current installed capacity. Brookfield
Asset Management Inc. has the most planned renewable capacity
in the WECC, with 5,940 MW under development and no renewable capacity
installed. The 5,940 MW under development consists of five large
hydroelectric pumped storage plants in Washington and
Idaho.

First Wind
Holdings Inc. has the most wind capacity under development in
the region, with five wind projects totaling 3,165 MW. The largest is the
1,900-MW Desert
Sage Wind project in New Mexico. The company is the
fifth-largest wind developer in the United States, with 4,586 MW of
planned
capacity.

BrightSource
Energy Inc. has 2,960 MW of solar capacity planned in the WECC,
making it the largest solar developer in the region. The company has four
large solar thermal projects planned in Arizona and Nevada, each with a
capacity of at least 400 MW. The largest is the planned 960-MW Coyote
Springs solar project, which is the third-largest solar project
planned in the United
States.

The
plants

Overall,
the region of the WECC outside of California has 62 biomass, 23
geothermal, 81 solar, 386 hydro and 91 wind facilities in operation. The
top 10 plants by 2008 net generation are all hydroelectric
technologies.

The
largest plant by 2008 net generation is the massive 7,079-MW Grand
Coulee project owned by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The
plant, which came online in 1941, generated 22.3 million MWh in 2008,
making it the fourth-largest generator among all plants in the United
States and the largest by installed capacity.

The
second-largest plant by 2008 net generation is the 2,456-MW Chief
Joseph plant in Douglas County, Wash., also owned by the U.S.
government.

Seven of
the 10 largest plants in the region are ultimately owned by the U.S.
government, while the other three are owned by public utility
districts.

Most of
the top-producing nonhydro plants in the region are wind plants. The
largest is the 301-MW Cedar
Creek Wind facility, which generated 972,787 MWh in 2008,
making it the fourth-most-productive nonhydro resource in the country. The
size of similar projects in the region is growing, as evidenced by the 42
nonhydro renewable projects larger than 300 MW currently
planned.

The
projects

Four of
the 10 largest planned renewable plants in the region are wind plants,
while the remaining six are hydro. The six hydro plants in the top 10 are
all using pumped storage technology and reveal an underlying trend in
hydropower development in the region.

Of the
17,922 MW of hydroelectric capacity planned in the region, 16,733 MW, or
93%, comes from pumped storage projects, with the remaining 7% coming from
traditional hydro sources. United
Power Corp. and Brookfield Asset Management are the top
developers of pumped storage capacity, with 3,250 MW and 5,940 MW planned,
respectively.

The
largest of the pumped storage projects in the WECC is United Power's
2,000-MW Sentinel
Mountain. The project is in advanced development and is the
largest pumped storage project in the United States. Only one operating
pumped storage plant in the country, the 2,923-MW Bath
County plant in Virginia, is larger than the Sentinel Mountain
project.

The
largest planned renewable plant overall in the non-California WECC is the
Wildcat
Ridge Wind project. The 2,250-MW facility, owned by Midwest
Wind Energy LLC, will be located in Banner County, Neb., and
has an estimated construction cost of $4.95 billion. The company cites the
project location as one of the best on-land wind sites in the country,
with average wind speeds exceeding 9 meters per second over the entire
100,000-plus-acre project area, with some of the spots seeing speeds as
high as 10 m/s. Overall, the plant is the fourth-largest planned wind farm
in the country.

Large
wind projects are being proposed in states all across the WECC. Nine
states in the region have at least one wind project of 500 MW or greater,
with 21 total projects of that size in the pipeline.

Caroline
Kerr contributed to this article.

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